讲座题目：Stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
主 持 人：慕银平教授
The business press characterized the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) as the most significant disruption ever for global supply chains. In the aftermath of the GEJE, there was a great deal of debate about the risks and vulnerabilities of global supply chains and there were calls to redesign and restructure supply chain strategies. To examine this issue, we empirically estimate the effect of the GEJE on the stock prices (or shareholder value) of firms. Our analyses are based on a global sample of 460 publicly traded firms collected from articles and announcements in the business press that identify firms affected by the GEJE. We find that firms experiencing supply chain disruptions due to the GEJE lose on average 3.73% of their shareholder value during the one month period after the GEJE, and the loss remains roughly at this level when measured over the three month period after the GEJE. This level of loss in shareholder value is economically significant. However, if we consider the claims about the widespread and significant disruptions in supply chains caused by the GEJE, together with the rarity of such an event, the loss does not seem inordinately negative. It suggests that supply chains were probably not that vulnerable to the GEJE, and/or they were able to recover quickly and reduce the losses, indicating that they were fairly resilient. We also find that subsequent to the GEJE, upstream and downstream supply chain propagation effects are negative, the contagion effect on firms related to the nuclear industry is very negative and sustained, and although the competitive effect is positive over the first month after the GEJE, much of this effect dissipates over the next two months.
Vinod Singhal，美国乔治亚理工学院施勒商学院（Scheller College of Business at Georgia Institute of Technology）讲席教授，Management Science, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Journal of Operations Management副主编，Production and Operations Management部门主编，IEEE Transactions in Engineering Management, Quality Management Journal, Operations and Supply Chain Management等国际期刊编委会成员。
Vinod Singhal教授是运作管理领域的国际知名专家，研究领域包括供应链管理、质量管理、决策分析、经营决策的财务和经济影响实证研究等。在Management Science, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Journal of Operations Management, Production and Operations Management等国际顶尖管理类期刊上发表数十篇高水平学术论文，出版专著6部，多次受邀在不同大学和从业者会议上发表演讲130余次，研究成果被Business Week, Financial Times等国际知名报纸杂志广泛引用，并获得美国劳工会、美国国家科学基金、美国质量学会及斯隆基金会的资助。曾获2001 Finalist paper Award from the Journal of Operations Management、2003 Best Paper Award from the Journal of Operations Management等多项奖励。