题 目：Path to Purchase: A Mutually Exciting Point Process Model for Online Advertising and Conversion
主讲人：徐立臻 副教授（Georgia Institute of Technology）
主持人：袁 华 副教授（UESTC）
This paper studies the effects of various types of online advertisements on purchase conversion by capturing the dynamic interactions among advertisement clicks themselves. It is motivated by the observation that certain advertisement clicks may not result in immediate purchases, but they stimulate subsequent clicks on other advertisements which then lead to purchases. We develop a novel model based on mutually exciting point processes, which consider advertisement clicks and purchases as dependent random events in continuous time. We find that display advertisements have relatively low direct effect on purchase conversion, but they are more likely to stimulate subsequent visits through other advertisement formats. We show that the commonly used measure of conversion rate is biased in favor of search advertisements and underestimates the conversion effect of display advertisements the most. Our model also furnishes a useful tool to predict future purchases and advertisement clicks for the purpose of targeted marketing and CRM.
Lizhen Xu is an Associate Professor of Information Technology Management in the Scheller College of Business at Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in quantitative research methodologies that involve both analytical and empirical modeling. His general research interest lies in the economics of information systems and its interface with marketing and operations management. The substantive areas of interest include: online advertising and search engine marketing, online reviews and service management, mobile analytics and user behavior, among others. His papers have been published in academic journals such as Management Science, Journal of Marketing Research, Information Systems Research, Production and Operations Management, Journal of Management Information Systems, and Decision Analysis.